Although there’s quite a bit of hype surrounding the expected all-around duel between defending national champion Rebecca Bross and first-year senior Jordyn Wieber, the truth is that beyond these two gymnasts we probably have the strongest all-around field we’ve seen in quite some time.  Below I’ve listed the gymnasts I consider to be the top ten all-arounders to watch this week in St. Paul, ranked by their overall D-scores (difficulty scores) shown in competition this year.  Keep in mind these D-scores are simply based on the highest D-scores they’ve shown and may not represent exactly what they’ll perform in St. Paul.  D-scores always fluctuate a bit depending on what skills and connections the gymnasts actually thow when the competition arrives, what they hit and miss, and what they actually get credit for.  Also note that Shawn Johnson has only competed two events thus far, and so I did simply estimate her total D-score based on her bars and beam from Covergirl, and assuming a DTY on vault and a watered down floor routine for her.  Next to a few of the D-scores I have listed an additional “potential” D-score for gymnasts who may be expected to add some difficulty at this week’s competition:

 

 

Jordyn Wieber           25.1

Rebecca Bross            24.9

Aly Raisman               24.7

Gabrielle Douglas      24.4           *25.1 (if she throws an Amanar on vault)

Makayla Maroney      23.8

Sabrina Vega               23.5

Shawn Johnson          22.6

Bridgette Caquatto       22.5          *23.3 (if she throws a DTY on vault as she used to)

McKenzie Wofford       22.3          *22.6 (Yurchenko 1 ½ on vault as she used to)

Chellsie Memmel          22.0         *23.9 (DTY, double layout, Hindorff-Pak on bars)

 

If we use the “potential” D-scores I listed above and re-rank them, it looks like this:

 

Jordyn Wieber            25.1

Gabrielle Douglas      25.1

Rebecca Bross             24.9

Aly Raisman                24.7

Chellsie Memmel        23.9

Makayla Maroney       23.8

Sabrina Vega                23.5

Bridgette Caquatto       23.3

Shawn Johnson           22.6

McKenzie Wofford       22.6

 

Of course these D-scores won’t likely end up being precisely accurate, but they give us a great overall picture of where these gymnasts stand going into the Visa Championships.  And of course D-scores are incomplete without E-scores, but the D-scores do tell a lot about a gymnast’s scoring potential and what she’s capable of.  It’s no surprise that the two favorites (Wieber and Bross) have shown the highest overall D-scores in competition, followed by defending all-around bronze medalist Aly Raisman.  What’s very interesting is that if first-year senior Gabrielle Douglas does in fact throw her Amanar, she may very well have the highest – or at least be tied for the highest – overall D-score of the entire competition.  It’s also interesting to see that Chellsie Memmel has the biggest potential “leap” in difficulty between what she’s shown and what she’s capable of.  I have no idea if she’s planning on competing a DTY this week, but her vault at Covergirl looked capable of it.  If she adds back in the double layout on floor and her well known Hindorff to Pak salto combination on bars, she’ll be right up there with Makayla Maroney in the upper-23 range in difficulty.

 

Will these D-scores prove to be reliable predictors of this week’s competition?  Only time will tell, but as for now, we can assume that Wieber, Bross, Raisman, and Douglas will have first dibs at the all-around medals if they hit their routines.  Gabby Douglas could potentially provide the biggest surprise of the meet if she throws her Amanar and hits four-for-four, and Chellsie Memmel could potentially be a medal contender if she throws what she’s capable of.